God's Hand: absorption at a selling climax
God's Hand measures moments in sharp declines when heavy selling is absorbed by buyers; it is a reaction setup, not a reversal prophecy, and calls for a scaled approach.
Below the chart above you will see orange, flame-shaped cones. This panel is ‘God's Hand’: a measure developed by BBL itself. When volume explodes in the middle of a sharp decline but price does not fall as much as that volume would suggest, that is, when the selling is being absorbed by someone, the cone rises. The bigger the cone, the stronger the absorption.
Why does this picture matter? In moments of panic, someone must be buying from those who sell. If heavy selling cannot push price down as far as expected, there is a strong buyer on the other side. This situation often ends in a reaction: price recovers for a while.
But careful: a reaction and a reversal are not the same thing. A reaction is a breather in the middle of a decline; a reversal is the trend changing direction. God's Hand is a reaction tool. It is normal for price to keep falling for a while after the cone. That is why in this setup our system does not say ‘buy it all at once’ but ‘watch in stages’, or, if conditions are right, ‘scale in’: splitting the position into parts and keeping the stop below the bottom of the cone.
When you tap the flame layer on the evidence card, you read the cone's strength and how high that strength is compared with recent cones.
How to read it
- Read the cone together with the decline: a big cone rising in the middle of a sharp fall tells you the selling is being absorbed.
- Look at the cone's size: small cones are frequent; the real information is in the strongest recent cones.
- Separate reaction from reversal: it is normal for price to fall a while longer after the cone; think in stages instead of taking a full position at once.
- Put the stop below the low where the cone formed: if price closes below that low, the absorption thesis has failed.
We measured
We measured what happens after absorption. In crypto on the 4-hour chart, when a strong absorption cone came together with price having pulled back at least 5 average candle sizes (ATR) from its last peak, the result over the next 120 candles (about 20 days) was clearly better than a control group pulled back just as deep but without absorption. On BIST, evidence existed only for a short reaction (20 candles); no difference showed over the longer horizon. The hit rate was around fifty-fifty: the gain came from the average, which is why scaling in and position size control are essential.
Source: BBL m23 measurement: crypto and BIST, 4 hour, control group of equal pullbacks without absorption, clustered by symbol and month ·
Trap
The most common mistake is reading the cone as ‘this is the bottom’. The cone is a reaction setup; price usually goes lower for a while after it. Buying the whole position at the top of the cone leads to panic during this normal sag. The second mistake is confusing where the evidence exists with where it does not: our measurement showed an edge on a scale of weeks in crypto, and only a short reaction on BIST.
Tip
If you see a ‘SCALE-IN WATCH’ or ‘SCALE IN’ badge on the analysis card, it is exactly the setup in this lesson: split the position into parts and keep the stop below the bottom of the cone.
Glossary
- Absorption
- Heavy selling failing to push price down as much as expected; a strong buyer on the other side.
- Selling climax
- The most intense moment of a sharp decline, when panic selling concentrates.
- Reaction
- A temporary recovery in the middle of a decline; different from a trend reversal.
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Study the God's Hand panel in an analysis →For information only, not investment advice.